The Apple Tree Has Become the Money Tree!

AAPL hit $261, getting close to my $300 prediction in late 2008. My 2 incredible blogs are a gold mine for my followers, people who are tired of the old rules that got them screwed and want rules that work for a change. I will help them get out of the conundrum thinking box. I will do something that I haven’t done before. Since the traffic to this psychological advice blog is twice as much as the traffic to my behavioral investing and finance blog, I decided to switch topics – just this time!

Steven Jobs is making my followers rich.  Go to Yahoo right now (April 22, 2010 at 12), bring up AAPL and read that the median target estimate (MTE) is $310 while the mean target estimate is only $296.65…. should have been reversed because of the high volume of buying AAPL. Go to my 2009 book The Psychology of Investing, and read “Since the median is more representative of a company than the mean, a ratio of median/mean higher than “one” may be predictive of good things to come.” (page 121). You will not find this information applied to stock prices anywhere in books or the internet, and you should not use any information from my blogs to invest either unless you took my workshops and have passed my total training with an “A” grade. Don’t turn the money tree into a monkey tree. Short cuts in life don’t work. They make you poor. You lose your good relationships.  Shorting anything “sucks”! God bless wise people!

Flying resumed prematurely..

On April 16 I posted a psychological prediction of what will happen to the flying public during the volcanic ash period. My prediction came through! Read it! Now I will predict that an airplane will crash somewhere and the authorities will  “cover up” of the real “Ash” cause. I wish for the flying public to be absolutely safe, but psychology would say that when money and political power are involved, human life becomes less sacred, whether astronaut, patient, or air passenger. Today, I heard the first idiot on TV saying, “statistically flying is safer than driving.” The last time I heard a stupid statistic was from a sociology professor who said, “The average middle class family has two and a half kids!

A big improvement with a small rule.

You will thank me for this psychological insight that most psychologists won’t even mention. The big improvement in your relationships will be specific: People will do for you more than you do for them and they will love it! The small obscure rule is a part of a  neglected branch of psychology called contingency management of relationships. The small obscure rule says, Be fair but don’t do anything for free. Charge people something for your services even if they deserve these services free. Sure, do something for them for treating you well, but do it in small pieces, occasionally, and without flair. Give them a discount for being helpful, but don’t give it to them free, whatever it is.. When they do something well for you, if you say “thank you” their good behavior will happen again and again, but if you pay the “full price” for it, they will do less and less for you – and excuses will replace the relationship. “I’m sorry I forgot to do it” would become the new rule of the day. You will be taken for granted for being too generous. This is human nature. Get out of the “Box.”

Five psychological factors aggravating the interplay between volcanic ash and air traffic control:

(1) Pressure to resume flights on Airlines losing money, (2) Impatient public trying to get home, (3) Competitive National airlines, (4) Political Pressures on decision makers to approved flights, and the most pernicious psychological factor of the 21st Century, (5), The “911 Syndrome” (public apathy about air disasters). These five psychological factors mediate the interplay between volcanic ash and air traffic decisions, increasing the probability of negligence. All it takes is a key individual in a position of authority to believe that flying through some ash is safe. He will then allow premature resumption of flights because financial and political pressures have “helped” him rationalize away the danger of flying through volcanic ash.

Airline passengers organizations may not warn passengers if they believe the flying public “want to get home on time,” or “feels the terrible inconvenience” of sleeping in airports. Chances are that they will abrogate their responsibility to tell air passengers not to fly certain routes untill the ash has completely dissipated (data requires expensive lab reports).  Would they act on a warning without “spinning” it to death?  Flying planes through volcanic ash shuts off the engines 95 flights out of a 100, and the damage during the other 5 flights raises the probability of shut off during following flights! Thus, the death sentence of flying through volcanic ash over time is 100% statistically significant.

The only solution to the “ash problem” is TIME to ensure 100% safe flights for the public.  Resumption of air traffic on each route must be allowed only after lab reports show that there is no volcanic ash left in the air on each route. Human life is more important than saving money by cutting corners. However, knowing the terrible national and corporate competition for air traffic profits and pride in the world, only a special insurance policy that will pay for all the money lost during traffic delay because of volcanic ash can eliminate the subconscious motivation to cut corners that threatens human life in the air.

My incredible blog is not “psychologically correct,” but let’s hope that this time for the sake of saving lives I get more than the usual 1 or 2 responses from fly by night visitors, or visitors on the fly! 🙂

Beware of tech. ads!

This morning I was shopping for a quality video movie camera for an important 21 days tour. The sales person described the JVC GD 120 HB digital camcorder for $750, “It’s an experience you’re sure to enjoy,” he said. His description of the camcorder was a professionally done “perfect” tech ad speech about a wonderful 120GB HD JVC HD620BU machine.

“Let me see,” I said, “Two hours video filming per day for 21 days, how many battery recharging would I need?” I asked.

He looked at me funny, “I don’t know, but I can find out,” he said, and took me to a store computer.

To make a long story short, after an hour of getting all his questions answered, but not getting my questions answered, I figured out that I will find what I want to buy only if I assert myself, stop the salesperson sales pitch and find the one sales person out of ten that could answer my questions, not his own! I know…my question is not easy to answer but I pay money: “I don’t have much time, please show me your  smallest, lightest, simplest, digital video movie camera that will record the sharpest 42 hours vacation movie, natural light, indoor light, night-time light, steady definition, max. zoom, recording for the most hours possible without recharging, changing software, emptying the hard drive or changing battery.”

Most people find out after they purchase electronic products that they had paid for features they would never use, that the battery didn’t last as long as they thought, that handling the camera was not as simple as they imagined, and many more disappointments.. I refuse to be influenced by sleek Tech. ads. I will find the best camera for my trip!

Psychologist Muzafer Sherif and the “Robbers Cave” Experiment.

Jon, you deserve a comprehensive response to your important question about posting #7. Peace and prosperity would have existed on Earth today, instead of the endless media debates how to bring it about, if people, governments or psychologists had listened seriously during the 20th Century to a group of six maverick “shrinks” (please forgive everyone for not listening to them because, as Jesus put it, people know not know what they do). The magnificent six whose findings were rejected by humanity were Muzafer Sherif, the amazing Turkish social psychologist, graduate of Harvard University, Jean Piaget, the amazing Swiss psychologist, B.F. Skinner, the incredible Harvard University Behaviorist,  Zigi Freud, the genius Austrian psychiatrist,  Thomas Szasz, the maverick Czechoslovakian psychologist, and Dr. Laing, the famous British psychiatrist. If their findings were implemented by governments or people, life of earth today would be peaceful and prosperous!

Posting #7 was about replacing words with action. Muzafer Sherif and his wife discovered the key to effective conflict resolution between “enemies.” Their finding was so unconventional that no one in government or academia wanted to take action that would “kill” the exciting political debate about peace and prosperity! Muzafer’s amazing findings that to get the “Rattlers” and the “Eagles” to move from enmity to friendship the authorities had to create a “mutually exclusive contingency management” situation was never implemented!

My dear listeners,  in 30 years of work as a psychologist and a college professor, I have yet to meet a person who would take B.F. Skinner’s “contingency behaviorism” seriously, Muzafer Sherif’s “contingency social relationships” seriously, Zigmund Freud’s “contingency personality conflicts” seriously, or  Thomas Szasz’s “contingency ‘abnormal’ relationships” seriously. People love endless debates, not solutions, or in the words of Dr. Freud, “Humanity’s desire for endless debate is a neurotic preoccupation with the concept of progress.” Have a great day.

By the way, Jon, my whole life works within a  contingent management of relationships!  Take a hint, son! Enjoy!

10 economic aftershocks to hit before 2013 (segment III).

4. Increasing leadership incompetence – leaders that are elected in democracies, or self-appointed in dictatorships, start governing based on fear of foreigners or their populace. Third movements are formed in democracies and second movements are formed in dictatorships that preoccupy the people and slow down progress.

5. Health care crisis worsen – people are polarised more and more in the United States, and it paralyses the solution. The deficits balloons while special interests get more money from the American people who get frustrated and riot.

6. Educational vows continue – another generation of Americans enter the work force without necessary skills and values. Conventional thinking continue to plague a nation in crisis. Creative educators are a voice in the wilderness throughout the next decade. Contingency management could have solved the problem, but no one is listening.

7. Silly debates become more popular – these are spread by the media and sap the energy from the American people who really want good action more than ‘entertaining’ debate.

8. International conflict get bloody – leadership incompetence leads to a third world war because the United States repeats the same behavior it had before the first two world wars: Waiting till it gets bruised bad enough to assert its deterrent power!

9. Subprime mortgages and high unemployment come back –  are fixed only temporarily for a few years because no real economic regulation system is developed.

10. I left #10 to you, may be your thoughts how to survive the first 10 aggravations and live happily again after 2013!

Dr. Kinarthy on love and conflict!

Love is the most common expression in human relationships, conflict comes a close second. You already know from my previous professional revelations that most of my colleagues are “politically correct” and will not tell you hardly anything like it is! I will, so pay close attention because the points that I make will give you the power to respond your best in love relationships or during conflict:

True love in a relationship is never “unconditional,” and is not “chemistry” or “sexuality” or  “kind words.” True love is a “spiritual” state of overcoming the mind and willing to sacrifice something of yourself to the object of your love because you receive something in return that you consider important or  “special.” The “sacrifice” must be in the form of performing  a meaningful “service,” and/or giving “a product” to the object of your love, and receiving a meaningful “service” or a “product.” True love is nurtured by consciousness which makes sure that the “exchange” is growth promoting, feels natural, and is balanced.

Conflict is always mental and physical, never spiritual: You believe that you give more than you receive, and you get physical about it because it is important to you to receive more. There is no such thing as “spiritual” conflict except in the mind, which makes it also mental. The resolution of conflict is always in the favor of the stronger party if it is willing to demonstrate its strength while showing respect and fairness to the weaker party.

The above descriptions of true love and conflict resolution are easy to follow if you can answer the  “true-false” questions: (1) It is worse for your relationship to say “let me make it up to you,” than to say, “I am sorry about what I did.”  (2) It is better  to say on his birthday, “George, I love you very much” than to give him something or do something that you know will please him. (3) It is better for the relationship to say, “please don’t hit me again” than to physically restrain an opponent that assaults you.” (4) It is worse for the relationship to punish someone for a destructive behavior, than to give him a second chance to fix the damage. (5) In a true love relationship between a newly wed couple, it is OK for a partner to say, “I will make love to you as soon as I am ready to have a baby.” (6) In conflict resolution, it is better to warn your enemy first rather than retaliate first and then warn him against a second attack. (7) Showing kindness to someone who attacks you can work only if he sees you as a person who genuinely wants peace. You have great insight about relationships if you answered all false.

8 behaviors people do to mess up their relationships:

1. They rush too fast into relationships because they are young, lonely, horny, phony or perceive life as a social baloney. They hurt themselves in those relationships because they feel more guilty about their behavior than the behavior of others.

2. They don’t set up ahead of time any rules for relating and just play it along, so they don’t really know how effectively to solve conflicts when they arise.

3. They don’t think about who would be the best outside referee when there is a foul play, and those foul plays can become really “nasty balls” thrown at your court.

4. They let family, friends or co-workers interfere too much in the relationship, to the point that you tend to form two opposing camps or “armies.” The conflict usually reaches an impasse and is just represses without a solution until it flares up again.

5. They relay too much on unqualified professionals, authorities, etc., to handle disputes and differences. The situation becomes more entangled than it really is.

6. They react to unacceptable verbal behavior as if it means more than it does, yet knowing that in the heat of argument people say things they don’t mean and are not part of the personality (According to psychology speech does not come from attitude).

7. They react to unacceptable physical acts as if it means less than it does, yet knowing that even in the heat of argument people still do things they mean and are part of their personality! (according to psychology attitude triggers physical action).

8. They forgive unacceptable physical behavior against them instead of making the other person make it up to you in good behavior, giving a service, possession or money to make up for the bad behavior. The drastic option, of course, is to leave the person you have the relationship with!

I hope this helps some of you. It makes me feel really good to see happy smiling people around! Dr. Eli.

Commercials do more damage to your mind than you think…

…to your mind, not my mind, cause I know what to do about commercials, and I will show you. How do you buttress your mind from the onslaught of commercials on TV? First, you need to know about the damage they cause to your thinking, sneaking in an apathetic  “coach potato” attitude toward life, emptying your pocketbook, and stifling  your ability to make rational decisions based on true  knowledge: Commercials are louder than what you are watching, and laud noise disturbs the mind and irritates the nervous system, creating a short fuse in relationships. Commercials appeal to fear and anger, creating a reactive personality. Commercials are “stupid.”  You see, the competition for your cash is so fierce in a capitalist economy that advertisers always think of a new “gimmick” to capture your compulsions, addictions, dreams (you know you will never look like that girl or that living room in the commercial). Some of the tricks of the trade are repetition of sentences, words, or the commercial itself (a form of brain washing), using strong visual effect (hypnotic), disturbing, ridiculous and popular scenes (clutter longer in memory), and lately, out of economic desperation, even using an outright demanding language to buy a product or else… (making you fearful and “sheepish”). Many of the commercials for products and services depict sports stars and other individuals you admire telling you what you want to buy! It isn’t your choice anymore! Americans have more garage sales than any other people, and please don’t tell me that it is because we have a two car garage. If you watch the “persuasive” commercials on CNN versus the “relaxed” commercials on the BBC, you will know what I mean

Here is what I do to protect my sanity. I love the shows, don’t get me wrong. I won’t give up watching TV, but I click “instant channel surfing” with a zest. I never, never, never, stay there letting an unwanted commercial invade my mind. I have convinced myself a long time ago that most commercials don’t really inform you. They are a form of invasion of sanctuary, the enemy in my family room that doesn’t care about my feelings, that’s out to improve a company’s rating, not my standard of living. Listen, you must perceive commercials as your adversaries to be able to instantly “surf” away into something more appealing to do for a minute!