Posts Tagged ‘Abbas’

Psychological analysis: How strong is the psychological motivation for a Two-States solution

March 15, 2017

US president have invested 40 years and billions of tax payer dollars to help create a Palestinian democratic state to live in peace alongside the State of Israel. They all failed. Trump saw the failure signs all over recent history and decided not to try a Two States Solution (TSS) and behave like an ideot, like previous blind presidents. Then something happened – Trump fell into the LH pit!  This week he gave Abbas $250,000,000.00 to start a new TSS and a promise to try the Two States Solution for the last time. Why? Well, a president like Trump that won the election against all odds thinks that he can solve the problem in the middle east against all odds. Wrong! The Vegas odds of winning the presidency were 1/3 against Trump, the Cosmic odds of successful Two States Solution (TSS) is 1/infinity, against Trump! It is much less than zero! Why?

Let’s start from the beginning:

In 1948 the probability of TSS success was 50%, the Jews accepted a TSS and the Arabs did not. In 1967 the Jews won more territory from the Arabs. The probability of success became 0%. The Arabs wanted now the TSS that was there in 1966. Time marched. Before the 2016 election the probability of TSS success was again 50% when the Jews accepted a TSS of 1968. The Arabs now wanted a TSS of 1948! The Jews said no to all TSS’s. Israel got a right-wing government.  They feel strong enough to say no to the Arabs – but not to Trump. He wanted to have the last word about Judea and Samaria, the last try to try the last TSS try! Poor Trump, got caught in the stink web! The man  won all his battles except this TSS one. Poor Trump, he doesn’t know it yet!!! It may cost him the second term as president in 2020! Well, he has got  Jewish advisers, can someone in the WH tell him that the Arabs will never accept a Jewish state in “their midst” of “their” area of the world? They can’t, it says in the Quran that they should rule the world – except Israel, but they “forgot” about that Sura that would dissolve the last TSS!

Thus, TSS has no solution. The Hindu Veda calls it the Bahagavad Gita! What is is and what isn’t isn’t. The Italians call it “Key Sera Sera.” Let’s name the La Brea Pits in California where dinosaurs sank throughout history the Palestine pits where US presidents sank throughout history!

 

Does this confrontation between Israel and the ICC pointing to the end of – the ICC?

December 15, 2016

“If the Knesset passes the settlements regulation bill, the International Criminal Court will go after Israelis and the Obama administration will let an anti-settlement resolution through at the UN, Prof. Alan Dershowitz says.”

As a Jew I have a lot of respect for Harvard’s professor of law Dershowich, as a psychologist I don’t.  Allan Dershowich thinking is left of center and as such he worry too much about the ICC reaction to Israel’s behavior. Even if the Knesset passes the settlements regulation bill and the ICC takes action, the ICC may lose its case against Israel for 3 reasons, 1) The Palestinians may not be able to provide the required deeds to the lands, 2) The international status of the lands is in “dispute,” not “occupied.’  No one is breaking international law by building a house in a “No Man’s Land,” and 3) Israel can ignore the ICC like it ignores the UN.

Obama’s reaction is a different matter. If the Knesset passes the Settlements law after January 20, 2017 Obama can do nothing against Israel. He is gone and done as an Israel bashing president. If he uses his veto power before Israel passes the Settlements law, the large damage to his reputation and record and the democratic party in the US will be much greater than the damage to Israel by another hostile UN resolution. How do I know that Dershowich is a leftist? Leftists always overestimate the power of bad people or institutions! That is why Chamberlain wanted to make peace with Hitler so much. He didn’t think the Nazis could be defeated in 4 years! That is why Obama wanted the agreement with Iran so much. He thought the Ayatollah was strong. And, that is why the Knesset may not pass the settlements bill before January 20, 2017. The delegates think that Obama and Abbas are strong!