Scientific and objective response to articles circulating about the demise of Israel!

The title of our political meeting soon will be, Where would Israel be in 50 years? Is it valid and reliable topic to discuss by everyone? I will not explain the difference between validity and reliability and other scientific terms in this posting – please educate yourself on your computer.  The probability can be obtained by using probability theory. The theory says that on the average about 90% of the variance of truth can be obtained by a thought experiment based on reality (Einstein did that), a process that can be achieved by about 10% of the people, usually individuals that can make 4 times more successful decisions in life than others. So far so good? The thought experiment can generate the 4 required variables each covering about 25% of the variance of predictability. So far so good?  Now, let’s get to work:

  1. Factor 1: Israel has an atomic bomb. If Israel know how to handle that deference, its 25%, if not, it’s less. I won’t tell you what my thought experiment found out but it’s more than 10%
  2. Factor 2: Israel’s government policies in Israel and in the world is a factor. Policies of the Right have more deference than policies of the Left. I won’t tell you what my thought experiment found out, but the surprising psychological fact that the Right studies the consequences of their behavior more than the Left does, the difference is more than 20%.
  3. Factor 3: Israel has a strong economy. The fact that they could manufacture or buy any kind of weapon they need would have given them 25% for this factor, but after a thought analysis they got only 15% for poor management of the defence of the country.
  4. Attitude of nationalism: Israel attitude of nationalism is 5%. To analyse this low attitude I looked at 3 anchor states: Israel 100% nationalism in 1948 and Russia 100% nationalism in 1994 and the US 100% in 1776. All 3 states have become less nationalistic and more Internationalist, Israel at 50% (12.5% on the scale), Russia 90% and the US 25%).
  5. Calculation: 10% +20% + 15% + 12.5% = 57.5%. The probability that Israel will survive is higher than average.  The error variance of this probability because of God, the Bible, history, miracles, etc cannot be assessed but my feeling is that Israel will over come its difficulties as the Israeli people become stronger. Peace comes in history to the strong. For example, America won, Japan and Germany have peace and prosperity. Good luck, dudes!

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