Estimated results for the up coming mid-term election (second posting).

The science of estimating is crucial for success not only as an investor but in any relationship that you are in (I will give you the rules of the science of estimating in future postings). People who shoot for the bull’s eye will be crashed by the bull 99 times out of a 100. People who shoot for the bull’s head will win 99 times out of 100. Perfectionists are losers! Estimators are winners!

We have five days before the mid-term election of a third of the Senate and all the House members in Washington. I made my estimated predictions of the results on March 22,2010 at 10:26 PM as to not to be influenced by last-minute gaffe’ by candidates or distortions by the media. I will not repeat my predictions here. You will need to go 8 months back to March 22, 2010 at 10:26 PM to read my predictions for November 2, 2010 elections! Nest week I will analyze the results against my predictions to find out if I am as good in political estimating as I am in behavioral economics estimating in Wall Street. My estimate is that I will be about 90% correct. You can send your election estimates to my blog (drelior.wordpress.com) for the next 4 days. I will announce the names of the winners – those of you with better estimated results than myself! Let’s have fun with it!

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4 Responses to “Estimated results for the up coming mid-term election (second posting).”

  1. drkinarthy Says:

    Casino gambling resembles day trading, someone wins but most people lose, otherwise casinos will go out of business. In the old days before electronics, you could win in Las Vegas knowing Dr. Skinner’s Schedules of Reinforcement Theory. Today, you may win sometimes knowing Cluster Theory in statistics but it is very difficult. Some people use psychic powers to make some money in gambling but the pay off is not worth the effort. Learning the stock market gives you much better odds – if you are smart! But gambling is fun. In my book The psychology of Investing I describe those that play Black Jack and Poker as having better odds to win, but actually most gambling require some skills that people never use. For example, if you spend hours in front of the Wheel of Fortune and a certain number or the house color never shows up, your odds with that improves. Also, I suspect that some employees will roll the wheel subconsciously to fall on a certain number. As I said, gambling is fun and may be good for winning a few bucks, but the stock mrket is a gold mine. Have a good day.

  2. drkinarthy Says:

    The “Arcade Fire” band YouTube music was fantastic!

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