Estimated results for the up coming mid-term election?

Without reading the above, many of you will not be able after the mid-term election on November 2, 2010 to oobjectively estimate the differential impact of Congress passing the health care bill on the Democratic and Republican parties. There is nothing wrong with just shooting the breeze about the results on November 3, but why not acquire a factual perspective:

1. House of Representatives Democrats: Expected loss about 20 seats as the majority party. A loss of no seats would be a huge victory, 5 seats a big victory, 10 seats a moderate victory, 15 seats a mild victory, 25 seats would be a moderate defeat, 30 seats a severe rebuke, while a loss of 35 seats or more would be devastating.

2. Senate Democrats: Expected loss about 5 seats as the majority party. A loss of no seats would be a huge victory, 10 seats a moderate defeat, 15 seats a huge defeat, 20 seats or more would be devastating.

3. House of Representatives Republicans: Expected gain about 20 seats as the minority party. A Gain of no seats would be a colossal loss, a gain of 5 seats a big loss, 10 seats a moderate defeat, 15 seats a mild defeat, 20 seats expected, 25 seats moderate gain, 40 seats or more a significant victory.

4. Senate Republicans: Expected gain about 5 seats as the minority party. A gain of no seats is a big defeat, 10 seats a moderate victory, and 15 seats or more a great victory.

If the passage of the health care bill helps the democrats, expect them to lose 15 or less house seats and 3 or less senate seats. If the passage of health care bill helps the Republicans, expect them to gain 25 or more house seats and 6 or more senate seats. What are your result estimates for the record?

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